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In a historic trial that has captivated the nation and drawn global attention, former President Donald Trump faces the potential for becoming the first ex-president of the United States to be convicted of a crime. The trial, rooted in allegations of hush-money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels, now moves toward its conclusion as closing arguments are delivered. With closing arguments scheduled to begin Tuesday and the jury set to start deliberating soon after, the nation waits anxiously to see the outcome of this landmark case.
What Happens With a Guilty Verdict?
A guilty verdict would have enormous implications. Though Trump has been free on bail throughout the trial, a guilty decision would still permit him to leave the courthouse as a free man, pending a sentencing hearing scheduled by Justice Juan Merchan. Factors like Trump’s age, his lack of previous convictions, and potential violations of court gag orders could influence the judge’s sentencing decision. Penalties could range from a fine, probation, or supervision, to potentially prison time.
Yet, Trump’s legal team is almost certain to appeal a guilty verdict, which could drag the case out for months or even years. These appeals would ascend through the legal system, likely moving from Manhattan’s Appellate Division to the Court of Appeals. This protracted process makes it highly unlikely that Trump would immediately find himself in handcuffs.
Grounds for Appeal
Several potential grounds for appeal could emerge. The testimony of Stormy Daniels, laden with detailed accounts of her alleged encounter with Trump, is a likely candidate. Anna Cominsky, a professor at New York Law School, noted the pros and cons of such detailed testimony. “On the one hand, her detail makes her credible and as a prosecutor, you want to provide enough detail so the jury believes what she has to say. On the other hand, there’s a line, where it could become irrelevant and prejudicial,” she said.
Trump’s defense team has twice called for a mistrial during Daniels’ testimony, though these motions were denied. The novel legal strategy by the District Attorney could also be contentious. Normally, falsifying business records is a misdemeanor in New York; Trump faces more severe felony charges because of an alleged second crime violating federal and state election laws. Legal experts question whether the Manhattan District Attorney has the jurisdiction to invoke an uncharged federal crime, thus creating additional grounds for appeal.
Could Trump Go to Prison?
While it’s possible that Trump could serve prison time, it’s highly improbable. The 34 charges he faces are Class E felonies, the lowest level in New York State, each carrying a maximum sentence of four years. Judge Merchan might lean towards a lesser punishment, considering Trump’s age, lack of previous criminal record, and the non-violent nature of the crime.
Running a prison system with a former president in custody presents its own complications. Trump is entitled to lifelong Secret Service protection, meaning agents would have to safeguard him in prison. This would be both a logistical and financial burden. Justin Paperny, director of the prison consulting firm White Collar Advice, summarized it succinctly: “It would be a freak show… no warden would allow it.”
Could He Still Run for President?
Incredibly, yes. The U.S. Constitution imposes minimal eligibility requirements for presidential candidates: they must be at least 35 years old, a natural-born U.S. citizen, and have lived in the U.S. for at least 14 years. A criminal record does not automatically disqualify a candidate. However, public sentiment could shift significantly if Trump is convicted. According to a poll from Bloomberg and Morning Consult, 53% of voters in key swing states would refuse to vote for Trump if convicted.
Could He Pardon Himself?
No, Trump could not pardon himself in this scenario. Presidential pardons apply only to federal crimes, and the hush-money case is a state matter. This jurisdictional nuance would prevent Trump from issuing a self-pardon even if he returned to the White House. Similar constraints apply to his legal troubles in Georgia, where he faces accusations of attempting to overturn the 2020 election results. For his federal cases involving the mishandling of classified documents and conspiring to subvert the 2020 election, the constitutional debate over whether a sitting president can pardon himself remains unsettled.
Witnesses and Testimonies
The trial featured a range of testimonies from individuals closely associated with Trump. Key witnesses included Michael Cohen, Trump’s former personal attorney, who admitted to orchestrating payments to Daniels. David Pecker, the former head of American Media Inc., and longtime Trump assistant Rhona Graff provided crucial testimonies linking Trump to the payments. Former Trump Organization comptroller Jeffrey McConney and Trump Organization employee Rebecca Manochio provided details about the mechanics of the payments.
Prosecutor Joshua Steinglass took a strong stance during closing statements, addressing inconsistencies in the defense’s portrayal of Cohen. Steinglass accused Cohen of monetary wrongdoing but emphasized that he was the only one facing consequences within this scheme involving Trump. As he deftly summarized, “He made his bed, but you can hardly blame him for making money on the one thing he has left which is his knowledge of the Trump phenomenon.”
Information Box
– Charges**: 34 counts of falsifying business records, potentially tied to a second crime relating to election law violations.
– Maximum Penalty**: Each charge carries a maximum of four years in prison, though a sentence could also include fines or probation.
– Potential for Appeal**: High, likely citing issues with the scope of testimony and novel legal strategy of the prosecution.
– Witnesses**: Key figures include Michael Cohen, David Pecker, Rhona Graff, Jeffrey McConney, and Stormy Daniels.
– Public Sentiment**: Polls show significant voter resistance to a convicted candidate.
– Legal Quagmire**: Jurisdictional challenges and the peculiarities of a former president’s secret service protection compound the issue.
As the jury gears up to deliberate, millions of eyes are fixed on this unprecedented trial and its possible ramifications for the American political landscape. Whether Trump will face conviction, appeal, or ultimately remain central to the next presidential race remains an open question. In any case, the conclusion of this hush-money trial will undeniably leave a significant mark on U.S. history.
References
Reference 1: BBC: What happens if Trump is convicted in hush-money trial?
Reference 2: CNN: Prosecution delivers closing argument in Trump criminal trial, by Kara Scannell, Lauren Del Valle, Jeremy Herb
Reference 3: Epoch Times: Everything You Need to Know as Trump Trial Heads to Verdict