Gold Market Analysis

Listen to our audio presentation: Stock Market Timing

The gold market is currently experiencing subdued activity as investors process the unexpected announcement of President Biden withdrawing from the presidential race. Gold briefly touched its daily high before declining to $2,385.20, and then recovering slightly.

Jeffrey Christian, managing partner of CPM Group, noted the market’s current quiet state as participants await further clarity on the political landscape and its broader implications.

Rhona O’Connell, a StoneX analyst, highlighted potential long-term impacts, suggesting that a Trump presidency could drive inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions, which are generally favorable for gold. However, she advised caution in making strategic decisions at this stage.

Attention is now shifting to key economic reports due later this week. The U.S. GDP data for Q2 will be released on Thursday, followed by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report on Friday. The PCE report is critical as it provides the latest inflation data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting on July 31.

Market consensus estimates that inflation rose at an annualized rate of 2.5% last month, slightly down from 2.6% in May. This could reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain its current benchmark rate, with a minimal 2.6% probability of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting. However, the likelihood of a rate cut remains high for September, with the CME’s FedWatch tool indicating a 91.2% probability of a quarter-point cut.

As traders await these economic indicators, gold prices are expected to remain sensitive to shifts in monetary policy expectations and political developments, reinforcing its status as a safe-haven asset during times of economic and political uncertainty.

Resource: Kitco

U.S. Markets

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): The DJIA closed at 40,415.44, marking a 0.32% increase with a gain of 127.91 points.
• NASDAQ Composite (COMP): The NASDAQ surged by 1.58%, closing at 18,007.57, with a significant rise of 280.63 points.
• S&P 500 Index (SPX): The S&P 500 saw a 1.08% increase, finishing at 5,564.41, up by 59.41 points.
• Global Dow Realtime (GDOW): This index showed a minor rise of 0.11%, closing at 4,792.09, a gain of 5.44 points.

European Markets

• FTSE 100: The FTSE 100 ended at 8,198.78, up by 0.53%, gaining 43.06 points.
• DAX: Germany’s DAX closed at 18,407.07, with a 1.29% increase, adding 235.14 points.
• CAC 40: The CAC 40 rose by 1.16% to 7,622.22, gaining 87.50 points.
• FTSE MIB: Italy’s FTSE MIB climbed by 1.17%, closing at 34,615.05, up by 399.21 points.
• IBEX 35: Spain’s IBEX 35 closed at 11,143.80, increasing by 0.51% with a gain of 56.30 points.
• STOXX Europe 600 (SXXP): The index showed a rise of 0.93%, closing at 514.79, up by 4.76 points.

Asian Markets

• Nikkei 225 (JP): The Nikkei closed at 39,772.46, up by 0.44% with a gain of 173.46 points.
• Hang Seng Index (HK): The Hang Seng fell by 0.11%, closing at 17,616.67, down by 19.21 points.
• Shanghai Composite (CN): The Shanghai Composite dropped by 0.37%, ending at 2,953.28, down by 10.93 points.
• Nifty 50 (IN): India’s Nifty 50 decreased by 0.13%, closing at 18,807.28, down by 102.57 points.
• Straits Times Index (SG): The STI rose by 0.49%, closing at 3,454.04, up by 16.78 points.
• ASX 200 (AU): Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.61%, closing at 7,980.4, up by 48.7 points.
• KOSPI Composite Index (KRX): The KOSPI increased by 0.38%, closing at 2,774.02, up by 10.51 points.

Commodities

• Gold (GC00): Gold prices rose by 0.42%, closing at $2,404.70 per ounce.
• Crude Oil (CL1): Crude oil prices fell by 0.22%, closing at $79.95 per barrel.

Currencies

• Euro: The euro was stable, with a minor decrease of 0.01%, closing at $1.0891.
• Japanese Yen: The yen fell by 0.25%, closing at ¥156.65.
• British Pound: The pound saw a slight decrease of 0.02%, closing at $1.2931.
• Australian Dollar: The Australian dollar dropped by 0.02%, closing at $0.6640.
• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): The index fell by 0.04%, closing at 104.28.
• WSJ Dollar Index: The index saw a 0.04% decrease, closing at 99.39.

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Bitcoin prices fell by 1.20%, closing at $67,431.
• Ethereum (ETHUSD): Ethereum dropped by 0.21%, closing at $3,480.49.
• XRP (XRPUSD): XRP decreased by 1.30%, closing at $0.6083.
• Litecoin (LTCUSD): Litecoin saw a rise of 0.40%, closing at $72.4800.
• Bitcoin Cash (BCHUSD): Bitcoin Cash fell by 1.33%, closing at $390.30.

Interest Rates

• U.S. 10 Year Treasury (TMUBMUSD10Y): Yield fell by 0.23%, closing at 4.246%.
• Germany 10 Year Government Bond (TMBMKDE-10Y): Yield rose by 0.28%, closing at 2.498%.
• UK 10 Year Gilt (TMBMKGB-10Y): Yield increased by 0.36%, closing at 4.164%.
• Italy 10 Year Government Bond (TMBMKIT-10Y): Yield slightly rose by 0.002%, closing at 3.775%.
• Spain 10 Year Government Bond (TMBMKES-10Y): Yield remained stable at 3.237%.
• Japan 10 Year Government Bond (TMBMKJP-10Y): Yield rose by 0.87%, closing at 1.074%.

Futures

• E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (ES00): Fell by 0.14%, closing at 5,603.00.
• E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Index (NQ00): Dropped by 0.26%, closing at 19,948.00.
• E-Mini Dow Continuous (YM00): Decreased by 0.07%, closing at 40,665.00.
• Silver Continuous Contract (SI00): Rose by 0.15%, closing at $29.365.
• Crude Oil WTI (CL1): Fell by 0.22%, closing at $79.95.
• Gold Continuous Contract (GC00): Rose by 0.41%, closing at $2,404.60.