As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the political landscape is heating up with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump as the primary contenders. With less than two months until Election Day, fresh polls suggest that Harris is gaining traction among independent voters, although the races in swing states remain tightly contested.
Harris replaced President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket in July, a strategic move that appears to be paying off. According to the latest average of national polls collated by FiveThirtyEight, Harris has a 3.1-point lead over Trump. This marginal lead is critical as both candidates vie for the support of the elusive independent voter base.
A recent Emerson College poll indicates that Harris leads Trump by +7.7 percent among independent voters, a significant increase compared to her +2 point lead among all voters. Capturing the independent vote is crucial for either candidate to secure victory, especially with RFK Jr. out of the race, reducing the likelihood of a third-party candidate siphoning votes.
The nationwide Emerson College poll shows that 49.5 percent of independents would vote for Harris, compared to 41.8 percent for Trump. This marks a substantial jump from the previous month, where Harris barely edged out Trump among independent voters (46 percent to 45 percent). However, 5 percent of independent voters remain undecided, making this a volatile and unpredictable group.
The race for battleground states is equally competitive. According to recent CNN polls, Harris leads Trump by +5 points in Michigan and +6 points in Wisconsin. Conversely, Trump holds a +5 point lead in Arizona, a state that has historically leaned Republican but flipped to Biden in 2020 by a narrow margin.
In Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, the race is too close to call. Harris and Trump are virtually tied in Pennsylvania, each securing 47 percent of the vote. This state has become a focal point for both campaigns, with frequent visits from both parties and the upcoming Trump-Harris debate scheduled for September 10.
Overall, battleground polls suggest that Harris is gaining momentum, particularly among non-partisan and independent voters. A separate ABC News/Ipsos poll indicates that the American public perceives Harris as running a better campaign overall, while Trump faces skepticism from a significant portion of his supporters.
The gender divide continues to grow, with Harris gaining +3 points among women since the Democratic National Convention, bringing her support among female voters to 54 percent. Meanwhile, Trump has seen a +5 point increase among male voters, with 51 percent now backing him.
An Activote poll highlights the demographic divides further. Trump’s core supporters include male voters, the 65+ age group, and white voters without a college education. Harris, on the other hand, polls strongest among young voters, female voters, and Black voters, among whom she has a +52 point lead.
As the election day nears, both candidates are ramping up their efforts to secure votes in key demographics and swing states. With Harris currently leading in national polls and among independents, the outcome of the 2024 presidential election remains uncertain but highly anticipated.